10/30/24 If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list   Sign Up Now

.

     The Cattle Markets have been diving lower as I anticipated the last couple of days, and the February'25 Hogs hit my target level of 85 in my Gamma Trader. The December'24 Fats were more than $2.50 lower at one point today. December'24 Live Cattle were 1.52 ½ lower today and settled at 186.42 1/2. Today's high was 187.92 ½ and the 1-month high is 189.80. Today's low was 185.47 ½ and the 1-month low is 184.15. Since 9/30 December'24 Live Cattle are 1.62 ½ higher or almost 1%. The Feeders were down more than $3.00 on the lows today. January'25 Feeder Cattle were 2.05 lower today and settled at 241.97 ½. Today's high was 243.50 and the 1-month high is 248.52 1/2. Today's low was 240.77 ½ and the 1-month low is 237.65. Since 9/30 January'25 Feeder Cattle are 3.20 higher or almost 1 1/2%. The Hogs made new highs today. December'24 Lean Hogs were 1.55 higher today and settled at 84.37 ½. Today's high was 84.65 and that is the new 1-month and 52-week high as well. Today's low was 83.00 and the 1-month low is 73.17 1/2. Since 9/30 December'24 Lean Hogs are 11.10 higher or more than 15%. The Cattle Markets continued their free fall today losing more than 1 ½ and 2 bucks in the Fats and Feeders respectively. The November'24 Feeders settled 5 dollars below the 250.50 level they traded above on October 8th - 14th, but were never able to settle above that level, and then the break started. The January'25 Feeders are now well below the 100-Day moving average of 244.39 and I think on the way to the 50-Day moving average of 238 and the 1-month low of 237.65, and then potentially lower from there. The 52-week low is 222.80 if you were wondering. The December'24 Fats have not traded below 185 since 10/1, when they traded down to the current 1-month low of 184.15. The 200-Day moving average sits just above there at 184.51, and I feel that we will see prices blow through those levels shortly. I think the December'24 Fats are on their way to 181.93, that is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. Trading down into the 170's looks very possible. The 52-week low is 172.25 so you know. It appears the longs in the market started to liquidate, as expected just before the end of the month. I am sure there were traders trying to get in front of Funds selling and sent the Market much lower early in the day. After a $17.00 rally, I am sure there are still plenty of longs in the market, that still need to puke or get out of their long positions or roll into another month. If the Widget sellers show up again, any fundamental or technical trading goes out the window, and it can get ugly fast. I am still Bearish the Cattle Markets and if you would like more information, please use this link Sign Up Now The December'24 Hogs made new contract highs today and now they can break. In the Walsh Gamma Trader that I write, I have had the 85 level as a target for about 6-weeks in the February'25 contract. The 85 Calls were less than a dollar then, and today they settled at 4.15. It was a good gamma trade, but I think this rally was too much too fast, and I feel we will most likely see lower prices from here. If the Cattle continue to break as I think they will, I think they will pull the Hogs down with them. I think we can see the December'24 Hogs turn around and head toward their 200-Day moving average of 74.06, the 50-Day moving average of 74.90, the 1-month low of 73.17 ½ and the 50% retracement level from the 52-week high/low of 73.18. We will see how close they get. 

.

     The Beans rallied today because tomorrow is the first notice day. There are still 15 days until the November'24 futures go off the board, and I still think they will retest lows. Switching to January'25 Soybeans now. January'25 Soybeans were 12 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 991 ¼. Today's high was 992 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1083 ¾. Today's low was 977 ¼ and that is the new 1-month low as well. The 52-week low is 973 ½. Since 9/30 January'25 Soybeans are 84 cents lower or almost 8%. The Corn Market lost a little today. December'24 Corn was 2 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 411 ½. Today's high was 414 ¼ and the 1-month high is 434 ¼. Today's low was 411 and the 1-month low is 399. The 52-week low is 385. Since 9/30 December'24 Corn is 13 ¼ cents lower or just over 3%. The Wheat Market had a small gain today. December'24 Wheat was 2 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 573 ¼. Today's high was 580 ½ and the 1-month high is 617 ¼. Today's low was 564 and the 1-month low is 557 ¾. The 52-week low is 520 ¾. Since 9/30 December'24 Wheat is 10 ¾ cents lower or almost 2%. The Beans were lower early this morning, but they rallied as the Cattle broke. The Harvest here is close to being finished, and the Planting in Brazil is now back to normal averages. The monsoon rains came as expected, and the farmers there took advantage of it and are now at typical planting progress. There are plenty of Soybeans everywhere. I would continue to sell March'25 Soybeans and Buy the August'25 Beans in the Option Market. I have trades already structured that would benefit from any problems during Brazil's planting now, growing season, and harvest, along with US planting and part of the growing season. If you are interested in seeing my trade recommendations, please use this link Sign Up Now It is dry and getting drier across most of the Midwest and beyond, and there could be problems with next year's crops, but it is too early to know yet. However, now is the time you can take advantage of market prices after a huge break and put on great Option Trades. I would sell into any Soybean rally until there is a reason not to. The Corn Market looks very stable, and I think we can see higher prices soon. I think we can see the 1-month highs tested in December'24 Corn at 434 ¼ and in March'25 Corn the 1-month high is 452 ¼. I would also lock in your feed cost now as well. The Wheat is always a wild card and does what it wants, but I think we can see higher prices again soon. If the Wheat decides to shoot higher again, 640 looks like a good target level in December'24, as it is the 50% retracement number, and 639 is the 1-month high in the March'25 contract. I want to work with you, and you are reading this for a reason. Just give me a call, I think it is time. 
.
I am still Bullish Soybean Oil and Canola Oil as well. 

.

Today's Brazil Weather Radar Map. 

.

If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list   Sign Up Now

.

-Bill

312-957-8079

I have market commentary and option charts in 

Pure Hedge – Livestock

Pure Hedge – Grain   

at WWW.WALSHTRADING.COM 

Call for specific trade recommendations.

1-312-957-8079 

Bill Allen

Senior Account Executive

Direct:      1 312 957 8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

WALSH TRADING INC.

311 South Wacker Drive

Suite 540

Chicago, Illinois 60606

www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. 

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.